Sporting San Miguelito 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 20 Feb 2026

📅20/02/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
17%
3.8
Away
57%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
9.02
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 25% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
33%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+5.0pp
17%
Draw
23%
-6.0pp
58%
Away Win
56%
+1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting San Miguelito EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy EU Bookmakers 61%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -80% /
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
255 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting San Miguelito
1-1
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy
0.41 xG 2.08
32% Ball Possession 68%
5 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
201 Passes 528
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
7 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting San Miguelito vs Los Angeles Galaxy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting San Miguelito and Los Angeles Galaxy couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Los Angeles Galaxy at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sporting San Miguelito had 32% of the ball to Los Angeles Galaxy's 68%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 0.41 to 2.08.

What was the final score of Sporting San Miguelito vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Sporting San Miguelito 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy in the CONCACAF Champions League on 20/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting San Miguelito vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Before kick-off our model rated an Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Sporting San Miguelito 26%, draw 17%, Los Angeles Galaxy 58%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Los Angeles Galaxy), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Los Angeles Galaxy) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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