Wellington Phoenix (K) 4-0 Adelaide United (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 20 Mar 2024

Wellington Phoenix (K)
4-0 HT 1-0
Adelaide United (K)
📅20/03/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2023/2024

Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
31%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
55%
-10.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+8.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.6pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wellington Phoenix (K) v Adelaide United (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K) EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United (K) EU Bookmakers 26%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.85/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.86
+21% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -41%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
16.0 Crosses 11.0
– Yellow Cards 1.0

Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K)
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Adelaide United (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 5
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 2-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW

Wellington Phoenix (K) 4-0 Adelaide United (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K)
4-0
AWAY Adelaide United (K)
2.27 xG 0.36
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
258 Passes 460
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Adelaide United (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix (K) ran out comfortable winners over Adelaide United (K) 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Wellington Phoenix (K) as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix (K) had 39% of the ball to Adelaide United (K)'s 61%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.27 to 0.36.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?

Wellington Phoenix (K) 4-0 Adelaide United (K) in the Australia - W-League on 20/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix (K) 45%, draw 24%, Adelaide United (K) 31%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wellington Phoenix (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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