Chengdu Qianbao 3-1 Shenzhen FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.47
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
17%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.15
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.73
6+ Goals
8%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.84
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
10%
18.15
X/1
26%
3.49
X/2
8%
13.1
X/X
10%
5.32
2/1
5%
25.5
2/2
6%
11.3
2/X
5%
19.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
64%
-6.0pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.8pp
17%
Away Win
14%
+3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.0pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chengdu Qianbao EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Shenzhen FC EU Bookmakers 17%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.48/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.40
-2% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
289 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
25.4 Crosses 13.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chengdu Qianbao
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Shenzhen FC
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.92 xG 0.53
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
376 Passes 242
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2023 Chengdu Qianbao Chengdu Qianbao 4-0 HT 2-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİNSL
29.06.2023 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-3 HT 0-1 Chengdu Qianbao Chengdu Qianbao ÇİNSL
26.06.2022 Chengdu Qianbao Chengdu Qianbao 2-2 HT 1-1 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
04.06.2022 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Chengdu Qianbao Chengdu Qianbao ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chengdu Qianbao
3-1
AWAY Shenzhen FC
3.77 xG 1.02
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 2
428 Passes 343
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
37 Box Touches 9
36 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chengdu Qianbao vs Shenzhen FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chengdu Qianbao got the better of Shenzhen FC 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chengdu Qianbao as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chengdu Qianbao had 56% of the ball to Shenzhen FC's 44%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 3.77 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Chengdu Qianbao had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Chengdu Qianbao and 1.00 for Shenzhen FC.

What was the final score of Chengdu Qianbao vs Shenzhen FC?

Chengdu Qianbao 3-1 Shenzhen FC in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chengdu Qianbao vs Shenzhen FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chengdu Qianbao win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Chengdu Qianbao 58%, draw 25%, Shenzhen FC 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chengdu Qianbao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chengdu Qianbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →