Fluminense 2-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.09
6+ Goals
11%
19.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.71
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
13%
4.28
X/2
9%
7.42
X/X
11%
4.32
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
9%
5.86
2/X
7%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
+0.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.44/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.38
-1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
21.4 Crosses 18.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.59 xG 1.21
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
547 Passes 214
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 17
31 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 4-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
07.05.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
13.02.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRC1
26.02.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRC1
31.03.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 1-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRC1
14.12.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
2-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.31 xG 1.91
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 21
8 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
479 Passes 308
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Vasco da Gama 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fluminense had 58% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 42%, shots finished 11-21, expected goals 1.31 to 1.91 — the balance of chances actually favoured Vasco da Gama.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fluminense and 1.17 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?

Fluminense 2-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 48%, draw 25%, Vasco da Gama 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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