Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Tochigi City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Tochigi City EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
1.33/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.26/0.50
+4% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / +142%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.2 Crosses 17.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
0-1
AWAY Tochigi City
57% Ball Possession 43%
6 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 6
321 Passes 98
75% Pass Accuracy 66%
33 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Tochigi City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tochigi City nicked a narrow win over Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Tochigi City made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 57% of the ball to Tochigi City's 43%, shots finished 6-6.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Tochigi City?

Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Tochigi City in the Japan - J3 League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Tochigi City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tochigi City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 33%, draw 28%, Tochigi City 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tochigi City), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tochigi City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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