Flamengo 2-1 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Jul 2024

Flamengo
2-1 HT 0-1
Criciuma
📅20/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Flamengo vs Criciuma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
23%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.51
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 32% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.72
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.55
X/1
24%
3.43
X/2
5%
14.6
X/X
13%
6.0
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
12%
12.3
2/X
6%
20.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-14.7pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.8pp
23%
Away Win
13%
+9.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.7pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Flamengo v Criciuma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 16%
-9% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +12%
1.77/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.25
-4% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +89% / +7%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
422 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 75%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
21.6 Crosses 11.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

Flamengo vs Criciuma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Criciuma
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
391 Passes 273
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
The Meetings
23.11.2014 Flamengo Flamengo 1-1 HT 1-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
24.08.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 0-2 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
29.09.2013 Flamengo Flamengo 4-1 HT 3-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
08.06.2013 Criciuma Criciuma 0-3 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
18.10.2004 Flamengo Flamengo 3-1 HT 1-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
08.07.2004 Criciuma Criciuma 1-1 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1

Flamengo 2-1 Criciuma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
2-1
AWAY Criciuma
2.49 xG 1.23
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
409 Passes 214
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 8
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo nicked a narrow win over Criciuma 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Flamengo had 63% of the ball to Criciuma's 37%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 2.49 to 1.23 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Flamengo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Flamengo and 0.67 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Criciuma?

Flamengo 2-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 52%, draw 26%, Criciuma 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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