Roskilde 1-2 AC Horsens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 20 Aug 2024

📅20/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.38
1/2
7%
22.7
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.85
X/1
11%
7.64
X/2
13%
4.48
X/X
9%
5.25
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.56
2/X
8%
13.45
Value flag · 1/X at 13.85 — our 10% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
29%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-0.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.0pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roskilde EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 49%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
0.31/2.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.07
-12% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
411 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
19.0 Crosses 18.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roskilde
1W-0D-4L
AWAY AC Horsens
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
06.11.2015 Roskilde Roskilde 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
16.08.2015 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-0 HT 1-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN1
06.06.2015 Roskilde Roskilde 1-2 HT 1-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
15.03.2015 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-2 HT 0-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN1
17.09.2014 Roskilde Roskilde 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roskilde
1-2
AWAY AC Horsens
1.67 xG 1.21
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 7
174 Passes 328
62% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 35
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roskilde vs AC Horsens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens nicked a narrow win over Roskilde 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had AC Horsens as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Roskilde had 41% of the ball to AC Horsens's 59%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.67 to 1.21 — on chances, Roskilde could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, AC Horsens led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Roskilde and 1.20 for AC Horsens.

What was the final score of Roskilde vs AC Horsens?

Roskilde 1-2 AC Horsens in the Denmark 1st Division on 20/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roskilde vs AC Horsens?

Before kick-off our model rated an AC Horsens win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Roskilde 29%, draw 27%, AC Horsens 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AC Horsens), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AC Horsens) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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