Granada 2-2 Malaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.21
6+ Goals
11%
20.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.5
X/1
24%
3.84
X/2
9%
8.66
X/X
9%
4.54
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
7%
7.24
2/X
5%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Granada win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
53%
+1.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Granada EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Malaga EU Bookmakers 25%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.46/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.24
+12% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
312 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
23.0 Crosses 16.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Granada
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Malaga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.20 xG 0.52
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
369 Passes 284
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2023 Granada Granada 1-0 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
08.12.2022 Malaga Malaga 1-1 HT 1-0 Granada Granada İS2
06.08.2022 Granada Granada 1-1 HT 1-0 Malaga Malaga HAZ
17.01.2021 Malaga Malaga 1-2 HT 0-2 Granada Granada İSPK
06.04.2019 Granada Granada 1-0 HT 1-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
01.12.2018 Malaga Malaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Granada Granada İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Granada
2-2
AWAY Malaga
2.34 xG 1.05
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
327 Passes 343
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Granada vs Malaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Granada and Malaga couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Granada at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Granada had 50% of the ball to Malaga's 50%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 2.34 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Granada had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Granada and 0.50 for Malaga.

What was the final score of Granada vs Malaga?

Granada 2-2 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Granada vs Malaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Granada win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Granada 54%, draw 24%, Malaga 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Granada) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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