Granada vs Malaga Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Granada v Malaga — Team-Based Signals
Granada vs Malaga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Malaga
İS2
1-1
HT 1-0
Granada
İS2
1-1
HT 1-0
Malaga
HAZ
1-2
HT 0-2
Granada
İSPK
1-0
HT 1-0
Malaga
İS2
0-1
HT 0-0
Granada
İS2
Granada 2-2 Malaga — Actual Match Statistics
Granada and Malaga couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.
Our pre-match lean was Granada at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Granada had 50% of the ball to Malaga's 50%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 2.34 to 1.05.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Granada had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Granada and 0.50 for Malaga.
What was the final score of Granada vs Malaga?
Granada 2-2 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Granada vs Malaga?
Before kick-off our model rated a Granada win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Granada 54%, draw 24%, Malaga 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.