Hebar 1918 1-2 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.12
Draw
37%
3.04
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.54
Over 2.5
35%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
43%
-10.5pp
37%
Draw
29%
+7.6pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.9pp
65%
Under 2.5
61%
+4.5pp
35%
Over 2.5
39%
-4.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.7pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hebar 1918 EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
1.02/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.25/2.00
-4% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -74% / -50%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hebar 1918
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
26.05.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 3-1 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hebar 1918
1-2
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
44% Ball Possession 56%
2 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Hebar 1918 vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia edged past Hebar 1918 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 37% / 30% — and on the day Septemvri Sofia made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hebar 1918 had 44% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 56%, shots finished 2-11.

What was the final score of Hebar 1918 vs Septemvri Sofia?

Hebar 1918 1-2 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hebar 1918 vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Hebar 1918 33%, draw 37%, Septemvri Sofia 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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