Nacional 0-3 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 20 Sep 2024

Nacional
0-3 HT 0-0
Sporting Braga
📅20/09/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Nacional vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
50%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.18
Over 2.5
59%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
14%
8.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.62
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.85
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
8%
9.43
X/2
22%
4.32
X/X
12%
5.42
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.22
2/X
6%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.85 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+2.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
50%
Away Win
53%
-2.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.7pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 57%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
0.61/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.15
-7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
10.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
14.9 Crosses 19.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Nacional vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.71 xG 2.25
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
277 Passes 469
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.12.2023 Nacional Nacional 1-3 HT 0-3 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga PORLC
25.04.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-2 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POK
12.04.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-5 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
28.02.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
17.10.2020 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR
18.01.2019 Nacional Nacional 0-3 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR

Nacional 0-3 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
0-3
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.25 xG 2.29
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
270 Passes 351
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 29
28 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga swept aside Nacional 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Nacional had 45% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 55%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.25 to 2.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nacional and 2.83 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Sporting Braga?

Nacional 0-3 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Nacional 25%, draw 24%, Sporting Braga 50%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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