Arbroath 1-1 Greenock Morton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 20 Sep 2025

Arbroath
1-1 HT 0-0
Greenock Morton
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Scotland - Championship – 2025/2026

Arbroath vs Greenock Morton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.69
4-5 Goals
19%
4.09
6+ Goals
7%
20.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.52 — our 34% vs market 31.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.65
1/2
10%
33.0
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
11%
5.21
X/2
13%
5.72
X/X
13%
4.04
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
11%
4.21
2/X
13%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.7pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arbroath v Greenock Morton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arbroath EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Greenock Morton EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.31/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.22
-7% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
136 · 91% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 122 · 90%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Arbroath vs Greenock Morton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arbroath
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Greenock Morton
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 3-0 HT 0-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
09.12.2023 Arbroath Arbroath 1-2 HT 0-1 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
26.08.2023 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 0-3 HT 0-1 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
17.03.2023 Arbroath Arbroath 1-1 HT 0-1 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
28.01.2023 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 1-2 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
03.12.2022 Arbroath Arbroath 1-1 HT 0-1 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
POST-MATCH Arbroath vs Greenock Morton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arbroath and Greenock Morton shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Arbroath and 1.33 for Greenock Morton.

What was the final score of Arbroath vs Greenock Morton?

Arbroath 1-1 Greenock Morton in the Scotland - Championship on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arbroath vs Greenock Morton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arbroath win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Arbroath 35%, draw 30%, Greenock Morton 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKCL More Scotland - Championship
20 Sep 2025
17:00 Ross County vs Queens Park Analysis →
17:00 Airdrieonians vs Raith Rovers Analysis →