Roma (K) 2-1 AC Milan (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 20 Oct 2024

Roma (K)
2-1 HT 1-1
AC Milan (K)
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Italya - Women's Serie A – 2024/2025

Roma (K) vs AC Milan (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
69%
-9.8pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.5pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+9.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Roma (K) v AC Milan (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma (K) EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY AC Milan (K) EU Bookmakers 16%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.26/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.96
+46% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +54%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
399 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
42.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
21.5 Crosses 16.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4

Roma (K) 2-1 AC Milan (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma (K)
2-1
AWAY AC Milan (K)
1.77 xG 0.54
50% Ball Possession 50%
21 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 2
300 Passes 330
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
45 Box Touches 19
43 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Roma (K) vs AC Milan (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma (K) squeezed past AC Milan (K) 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Roma (K) as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Roma (K) had 50% of the ball to AC Milan (K)'s 50%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 1.77 to 0.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roma (K)'s control.

What was the final score of Roma (K) vs AC Milan (K)?

Roma (K) 2-1 AC Milan (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma (K) vs AC Milan (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Roma (K) 59%, draw 19%, AC Milan (K) 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roma (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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