Lyon (K) 4-1 Roma (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 20 Nov 2024

📅20/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.11
Draw
23%
8.11
Away
21%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
Over Pick
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
39%
4-5
24%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
85%
-28.5pp
23%
Draw
9%
+13.7pp
21%
Away Win
6%
+14.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.3pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon (K) EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma (K) EU Bookmakers 9%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
3.20/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/2.67
-16% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -10%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
452 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 72%
46.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
30.0 Crosses 14.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon (K)
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Roma (K)
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.05 xG 0.22
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
479 Passes 311
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
44 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 0
13.11.2024 Roma (K) Roma (K) 0-3 HT 0-2 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon (K)
4-1
AWAY Roma (K)
3.32 xG 0.31
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
547 Passes 367
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
37 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 8
POST-MATCH Lyon (K) vs Roma (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon (K) ran out comfortable winners over Roma (K) 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lyon (K) as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lyon (K) had 58% of the ball to Roma (K)'s 42%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 3.32 to 0.31.

What was the final score of Lyon (K) vs Roma (K)?

Lyon (K) 4-1 Roma (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 20/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon (K) vs Roma (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Lyon (K) 56%, draw 23%, Roma (K) 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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