21/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-0
Pistoiese vs Aglianese Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No Pick
52%
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
39%
4-5
23%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
47%
Home Win
46%
28%
Draw
25%
24%
Away Win
29%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Pistoiese v Aglianese — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Pistoiese
The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY
Aglianese
The Market 32%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-1% /
-1%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+83%
/
-40%
53%
Ball Possession
47%
14
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
391 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
237 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Pistoiese vs Aglianese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Aglianese beat Pistoiese 2-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Pistoiese at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
What was the final score of Pistoiese vs Aglianese?
Pistoiese 0-2 Aglianese in the Italy - Serie D on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Pistoiese vs Aglianese?
Before kick-off our model rated a Pistoiese win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Pistoiese 47%, draw 28%, Aglianese 24%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Pistoiese) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Pistoiese)
✓ BTTS No
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21 Jan 2024