Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 21 Jan 2024

Central Coast Mariners
2-1 HT 0-0
Melbourne City
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.29
2-3 Goals
38%
1.97
4-5 Goals
26%
2.63
6+ Goals
14%
6.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.55
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.2
X/1
15%
4.77
X/2
10%
7.4
X/X
6%
6.07
2/1
9%
20.65
2/2
15%
4.65
2/X
6%
13.4
Value flag · 1/X at 13.2 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.3pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -13%
1.91/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.47
+35% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
18.0 Crosses 18.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Coast Mariners
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Melbourne City
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.66 xG 1.95
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
330 Passes 419
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-3 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
03.06.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-6 HT 1-2 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
15.04.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
27.12.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-0 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
22.02.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-2 HT 1-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
23.01.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS

Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
2-1
AWAY Melbourne City
1.67 xG 1.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
330 Passes 422
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners nicked a narrow win over Melbourne City 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Central Coast Mariners as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 45% of the ball to Melbourne City's 55%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.67 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 2.00 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City?

Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Central Coast Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 47%, draw 24%, Melbourne City 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Central Coast Mariners), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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