21/01/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
0-0
Ajaccio II vs Bastia II Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
Over
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No Pick
53%
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
36%
4-5
25%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
33%
Home Win
22%
28%
Draw
23%
39%
Away Win
55%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ajaccio II v Bastia II — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Ajaccio II
The Market 26%
Head to Head
AWAY
Bastia II
The Market 59%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
43%
Ball Possession
57%
11
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
6
239 · 71%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
408 · 80%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Ajaccio II vs Bastia II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Ajaccio II squeezed past Bastia II 2-1.
Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Ajaccio II found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
What was the final score of Ajaccio II vs Bastia II?
Ajaccio II 2-1 Bastia II in the France - National League 3 on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ajaccio II vs Bastia II?
Before kick-off our model rated an Bastia II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ajaccio II 33%, draw 28%, Bastia II 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Bastia II), BTTS No went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Bastia II)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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More France - National League 3
21 Jan 2024