Iztapa 1-0 Santa Lucia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Guatemela - Premier League Apertura, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
22%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
Over Pick
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
42%
4-5
23%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
3%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.2pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.9pp
23%
Away Win
27%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Iztapa The Market 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Lucia The Market 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
359 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Iztapa
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Santa Lucia
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
30.04.2023 Iztapa Iztapa 1-0 HT 1-0 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia GUAT
01.03.2023 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia 1-2 HT 1-2 Iztapa Iztapa GUAT
02.10.2022 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia 2-3 HT 2-1 Iztapa Iztapa GUAT
31.07.2022 Iztapa Iztapa 1-1 HT 1-1 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia GUAT
05.03.2022 Iztapa Iztapa 1-1 HT 1-0 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia GUAT
16.10.2021 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia 3-3 HT 2-1 Iztapa Iztapa GUAT
POST-MATCH Iztapa vs Santa Lucia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Iztapa edged past Santa Lucia 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Iztapa as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Iztapa had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Iztapa and 1.33 for Santa Lucia.

What was the final score of Iztapa vs Santa Lucia?

Iztapa 1-0 Santa Lucia in the Guatemela - Premier League Apertura on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Iztapa vs Santa Lucia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Iztapa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Iztapa 48%, draw 30%, Santa Lucia 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Iztapa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Iztapa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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