21/01/2024
·
15:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-2
Gusii vs Luanda Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
Over
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
No
44%
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
52%
4-5
18%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
13%
1/X
13%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
26%
Home Win
30%
31%
Draw
30%
43%
Away Win
40%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Gusii v Luanda Villa — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Gusii
The Market 33%
Head to Head
AWAY
Luanda Villa
The Market 45%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
46%
Ball Possession
54%
10
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
293 · 75%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
482 · 85%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Gusii vs Luanda Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Gusii squeezed past Luanda Villa 2-1.
Our pre-match lean was Luanda Villa at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Gusii vs Luanda Villa?
Gusii 2-1 Luanda Villa in the Kenya - Super League on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Gusii vs Luanda Villa?
Before kick-off our model rated an Luanda Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gusii 26%, draw 31%, Luanda Villa 43%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luanda Villa), Under 2.5 went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Luanda Villa)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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21 Jan 2024