21/01/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
2-0
Fiorentino vs Pennarossa Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
Over
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
36%
4-5
27%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Fiorentino win — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
56%
Home Win
56%
21%
Draw
23%
23%
Away Win
21%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fiorentino v Pennarossa — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Fiorentino
The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY
Pennarossa
The Market 24%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
58%
Ball Possession
42%
14
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
3
392 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
266 · 71%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Fiorentino vs Pennarossa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Fiorentino swept aside Pennarossa 4-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Fiorentino as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
What was the final score of Fiorentino vs Pennarossa?
Fiorentino 4-0 Pennarossa in the San Marino - Şampiyona on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fiorentino vs Pennarossa?
Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentino win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Fiorentino 56%, draw 21%, Pennarossa 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentino), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Fiorentino)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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