Dourados Atlético 1-1 Aquidauanense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Sul-Matogrossense, 21 Feb 2024

📅21/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
Over Pick
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
47%
4-5
25%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
3%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
53%
Home Win
68%
-14.6pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.7pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dourados Atlético The Market 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Aquidauanense The Market 17%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.50/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.72
-26% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -1%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dourados Atlético
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Aquidauanense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
25.02.2023 Aquidauanense Aquidauanense 2-2 HT 1-2 Dourados Atlético Dourados Atlético BRSMAT
22.01.2023 Dourados Atlético Dourados Atlético 1-0 HT 1-0 Aquidauanense Aquidauanense BRSMAT
14.04.2022 Aquidauanense Aquidauanense 2-3 Dourados Atlético Dourados Atlético BRSMAT
28.03.2021 Aquidauanense Aquidauanense 2-0 HT 1-0 Dourados Atlético Dourados Atlético BRSMAT
POST-MATCH Dourados Atlético vs Aquidauanense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dourados Atlético and Aquidauanense shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Dourados Atlético at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Dourados Atlético had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Dourados Atlético and 1.50 for Aquidauanense.

What was the final score of Dourados Atlético vs Aquidauanense?

Dourados Atlético 1-1 Aquidauanense in the Brazil - Sul-Matogrossense on 21/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dourados Atlético vs Aquidauanense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dourados Atlético win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Dourados Atlético 53%, draw 24%, Aquidauanense 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dourados Atlético), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dourados Atlético) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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