Finn Harps 0-1 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 21 Feb 2025

📅21/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.4
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
53%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 32% vs market 28.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
32%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
16%
+8.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
53%
Away Win
62%
-8.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.5pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 66%
+10% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.33/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/1.53
+43% / +81% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -44%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
227 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finn Harps
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Dundalk
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.74 xG 1.16
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
164 Passes 341
57% Pass Accuracy 71%
15 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
14.10.2022 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-2 HT 0-2 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
22.07.2022 Dundalk Dundalk 3-0 HT 3-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İRL
23.05.2022 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-1 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
28.02.2022 Dundalk Dundalk 3-0 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İRL
01.10.2021 Finn Harps Finn Harps 2-2 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
21.09.2021 Dundalk Dundalk 3-1 HT 1-1 Finn Harps Finn Harps İRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Finn Harps
0-1
AWAY Dundalk
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Finn Harps vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundalk squeezed past Finn Harps 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Dundalk as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Finn Harps had 51% of the ball to Dundalk's 49%, shots finished 13-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dundalk led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Finn Harps and 2.33 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Finn Harps vs Dundalk?

Finn Harps 0-1 Dundalk in the Ireland - 1st Division on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dundalk win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Finn Harps 24%, draw 23%, Dundalk 53%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dundalk), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dundalk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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