Toulouse 1-1 Paris FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 21 Feb 2026

Toulouse
1 - 1 HT 0 - 1
Paris FC
📅21/02/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Toulouse vs Paris FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
24%
3.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.69
Over
43%
2.06
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.8
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.6
2-3
46%
1.73
4-5
19%
4.18
6+
3%
21.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.76
1/2
2%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
17%
4.48
X/2
10%
7.41
X/X
19%
4.1
2/1
3%
28.0
2/2
12%
5.99
2/X
5%
14.5
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the view of our model: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a bet.

Toulouse v Paris FC — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Toulouse The Market 51%
Signal
AWAY Paris FC The Market 28%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Strong
1.62 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.97
0.99 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.24
Average Attack Strength Weak
Average Defense Strength Great
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
30 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3

Toulouse vs Paris FC Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Paris FC
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.68 xG 1.11
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 Passes 324
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.12.2025 Paris FC Paris FC 0-3 HT 0-2 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
02.04.2022 Toulouse Toulouse 2-1 HT 0-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
23.10.2021 Paris FC Paris FC 2-2 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
01.05.2021 Paris FC Paris FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
05.01.2021 Toulouse Toulouse 1-0 HT 0-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2

Toulouse 1-1 Paris FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
1 - 1
AWAY Paris FC
2.93 xG 0.88
55% Ball Possession 45%
23 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 3
400 Passes 310
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
38 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 5
REVIEW Toulouse vs Paris FC
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

a 1-1 draw left Toulouse and Paris FC with a point apiece. Half-time: 0-1.

We leaned Toulouse at 47% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

The match data tells the story: Toulouse had 55% of the ball to Paris FC's 45%, shots finished 23-5, expected goals 2.93 to 0.88.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Toulouse had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Toulouse and 1.20 for Paris FC.

Toulouse vs Paris FC Result & Final Score

Toulouse 1 - 1 Paris FC in the France - Ligue 1 on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Toulouse vs Paris FC Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 47%, draw 29%, Paris FC 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Toulouse) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toulouse) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
21 Feb 2026
19:00 Lens vs Monaco Analysis →
23:05 PSG vs Metz Analysis →