Naestved II 4-2 AB Tarnby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark Serisi - Grup 1, 21 Mar 2025

📅21/03/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
39%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.52
Over 2.5
50%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.2
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.93
6+ Goals
8%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
31%
+6.1pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.9pp
39%
Away Win
40%
-0.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
62%
-11.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
38%
+11.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.6pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naestved II EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY AB Tarnby EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Naestved II vs AB Tarnby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naestved II got the better of AB Tarnby 4-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Naestved II found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

What was the final score of Naestved II vs AB Tarnby?

Naestved II 4-2 AB Tarnby in the Denmark Serisi - Grup 1 on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naestved II vs AB Tarnby?

Before kick-off our model rated an AB Tarnby win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Naestved II 37%, draw 24%, AB Tarnby 39%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AB Tarnby)
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