Beijing Guoan 4-1 Qingdao Jonoon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
25%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
30%
2.74
Over 2.5
70%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.6
No
40%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.39
2-3 Goals
38%
2.12
4-5 Goals
33%
2.52
6+ Goals
12%
5.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.66
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
17.65
X/1
14%
3.88
X/2 EV+ ✗
11%
14.5
X/X
11%
7.91
2/1
5%
19.1
2/2
10%
9.69
2/X
4%
17.6
Value flag · X/2 at 14.5 — our 11% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-10.4pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.7pp
25%
Away Win
15%
+9.7pp
30%
Under 2.5
33%
-3.1pp
70%
Over 2.5
67%
+3.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+2.1pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Qingdao Jonoon EU Bookmakers 18%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.53/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.67
-18% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
450 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
25.7 Crosses 18.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beijing Guoan
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Qingdao Jonoon
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 0.87
70% Ball Possession 30%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
489 Passes 170
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
32 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.07.2023 Qingdao Jonoon Qingdao Jonoon 1-4 HT 0-2 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİNK
22.07.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 2-0 HT 0-0 Qingdao Jonoon Qingdao Jonoon ÇİNSL
25.04.2023 Qingdao Jonoon Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 HT 2-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beijing Guoan
4-1
AWAY Qingdao Jonoon
4.53 xG 1.37
64% Ball Possession 36%
34 Total Shots 8
17 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
495 Passes 237
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
56 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beijing Guoan cruised past Qingdao Jonoon 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Beijing Guoan as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (70%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Beijing Guoan had 64% of the ball to Qingdao Jonoon's 36%, shots finished 34-8, expected goals 4.53 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Beijing Guoan had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.33 for Qingdao Jonoon.

What was the final score of Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?

Beijing Guoan 4-1 Qingdao Jonoon in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beijing Guoan win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Beijing Guoan 56%, draw 19%, Qingdao Jonoon 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Beijing Guoan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Beijing Guoan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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