ML Vitebsk 3-1 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.28
Draw
18%
4.95
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.4
No
58%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.48
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
74%
-8.6pp
18%
Draw
17%
+0.9pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+7.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
38%
+4.2pp
58%
BTTS No
62%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ML Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 11%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.58
-5% / -60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -23%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
423 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ML Vitebsk
3-1
AWAY Smorgon
61% Ball Possession 39%
22 Total Shots 5
11 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ML Vitebsk got the better of Smorgon 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had ML Vitebsk as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ML Vitebsk had 61% of the ball to Smorgon's 39%, shots finished 22-5.

What was the final score of ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon?

ML Vitebsk 3-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a ML Vitebsk win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split ML Vitebsk 65%, draw 18%, Smorgon 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ML Vitebsk), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ML Vitebsk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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