NAC Breda 1-1 Emmen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 21 May 2024

NAC Breda
1-1 HT 1-0
Emmen
📅21/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

NAC Breda vs Emmen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.89
6+ Goals
11%
8.32
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 27% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.95
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.45
X/1
14%
3.94
X/2
6%
11.0
X/X
10%
6.17
2/1
6%
20.8
2/2
13%
7.97
2/X
6%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
60%
-7.8pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.1pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+7.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v Emmen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Emmen EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.57/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.30
-2% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
22.8 Crosses 12.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

NAC Breda vs Emmen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Emmen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.05 xG 1.22
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
374 Passes 309
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Emmen Emmen 2-3 HT 2-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
22.09.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-3 HT 1-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
03.06.2023 Emmen Emmen 2-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
31.05.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 0-2 Emmen Emmen HOL2
22.01.2022 Emmen Emmen 2-0 HT 2-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
17.09.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 1-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2

NAC Breda 1-1 Emmen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-1
AWAY Emmen
1.09 xG 1.86
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 Passes 276
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Emmen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda and Emmen shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 57% of the ball to Emmen's 43%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.09 to 1.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NAC Breda and 2.17 for Emmen.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Emmen?

NAC Breda 1-1 Emmen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 21/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Emmen?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 52%, draw 22%, Emmen 26%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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