River Plate 2-2 Lanus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
12%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.15
X/1
14%
3.71
X/2
7%
11.05
X/X
12%
5.3
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
12%
8.96
2/X
6%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
60%
-9.9pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME River Plate EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Lanus EU Bookmakers 21%
-11% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.91/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.37
+17% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -7%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
376 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 68%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
23.8 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME River Plate
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Lanus
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.82 xG 0.85
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
394 Passes 276
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.03.2023 Lanus Lanus 0-2 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
26.06.2022 River Plate River Plate 2-1 HT 2-1 Lanus Lanus ARJ
29.07.2021 Lanus Lanus 0-3 HT 0-2 River Plate River Plate ARJ
04.08.2019 River Plate River Plate 3-0 HT 2-0 Lanus Lanus ARJ
29.09.2018 Lanus Lanus 1-5 HT 1-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
12.02.2018 Lanus Lanus 1-0 HT 1-0 River Plate River Plate ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME River Plate
2-2
AWAY Lanus
3.00 xG 1.12
75% Ball Possession 25%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 0
555 Passes 119
86% Pass Accuracy 55%
29 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH River Plate vs Lanus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

River Plate and Lanus shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was River Plate at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, River Plate had 75% of the ball to Lanus's 25%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 3.00 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, River Plate had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for River Plate and 0.50 for Lanus.

What was the final score of River Plate vs Lanus?

River Plate 2-2 Lanus in the Argentina - Premier League on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for River Plate vs Lanus?

Before kick-off our model rated a River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split River Plate 50%, draw 25%, Lanus 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (River Plate), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (River Plate) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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