AC Horsens 1-3 FC Fredericia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 21 Jul 2024

AC Horsens
1-3 HT 1-0
FC Fredericia
📅21/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2024/2025

AC Horsens vs FC Fredericia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.03
Over
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
3.88
2-3
40%
1.83
4-5
23%
3.17
6+
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.88 — our 28% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.77
1/2
9%
33.5
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
6%
4.77
X/2
14%
7.21
X/X
9%
4.95
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
15%
4.96
2/X
9%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
46%
-10.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
38%
Away Win
28%
+9.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.6pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AC Horsens v FC Fredericia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Fredericia EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +29%
1.60/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.92
+5% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 75%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
19.3 Crosses 11.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.4

AC Horsens vs FC Fredericia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Horsens
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Fredericia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.56 xG 1.22
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
304 Passes 418
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 26
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2023 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
22.08.2023 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 2-0 HT 1-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
23.05.2022 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 0-4 HT 0-2 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
10.04.2022 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
03.12.2021 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 0-2 HT 0-2 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
12.09.2021 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-3 HT 1-2 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1

AC Horsens 1-3 FC Fredericia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Horsens
1-3
AWAY FC Fredericia
0.79 xG 1.07
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 4
458 Passes 305
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH AC Horsens vs FC Fredericia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Fredericia beat AC Horsens 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; FC Fredericia found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, AC Horsens had 58% of the ball to FC Fredericia's 42%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.79 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AC Horsens and 1.00 for FC Fredericia.

What was the final score of AC Horsens vs FC Fredericia?

AC Horsens 1-3 FC Fredericia in the Denmark 1st Division on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Horsens vs FC Fredericia?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Fredericia win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AC Horsens 35%, draw 27%, FC Fredericia 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Fredericia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Fredericia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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