Baños Ciudad de Fuego 1-1 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Cup, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
5.91
Draw
27%
4.49
Away Pick
58%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.33
Over
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
46%
4-5
14%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
24%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
El Nacional win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
15%
Home Win
14%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
19%
+7.9pp
58%
Away Win
67%
-8.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.9pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baños Ciudad de Fuego The Market 17%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional The Market 72%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% /
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
228 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Baños Ciudad de Fuego vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baños Ciudad de Fuego and El Nacional shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had El Nacional at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Baños Ciudad de Fuego vs El Nacional?

Baños Ciudad de Fuego 1-1 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Cup on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baños Ciudad de Fuego vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Baños Ciudad de Fuego 15%, draw 27%, El Nacional 58%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (El Nacional) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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