Ukrayna U19 3-2 İtalya U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — European U19, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.81
6+ Goals
14%
16.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.81 — our 24% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
32%
-2.2pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.9pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-2.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ukrayna U19 EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY İtalya U19 EU Bookmakers 48%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
2.03/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.00
+26% / +96% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
245 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ukrayna U19
0W-0D-1L
AWAY İtalya U19
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 12
23.03.2019 İtalya U19 İtalya U19 3-1 HT 2-1 Ukrayna U19 Ukrayna U19 U19
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ukrayna U19
3-2
AWAY İtalya U19
1.54 xG 1.28
32% Ball Possession 68%
15 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
146 Passes 431
61% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ukrayna U19 vs İtalya U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ukrayna U19 nicked a narrow win over İtalya U19 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was İtalya U19 at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Ukrayna U19 had 32% of the ball to İtalya U19's 68%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.54 to 1.28.

What was the final score of Ukrayna U19 vs İtalya U19?

Ukrayna U19 3-2 İtalya U19 in the European U19 on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ukrayna U19 vs İtalya U19?

Before kick-off our model rated an İtalya U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ukrayna U19 29%, draw 30%, İtalya U19 41%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (İtalya U19) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İtalya U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
U19 More European U19
21 Jul 2024
21:00 Norveç U19 vs Kuzey İrlanda U19 Analysis →