Valencia 2-3 Las Palmas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 21 Oct 2024

📅21/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.62
Over 2.5
36%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.53
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.66
6+ Goals
10%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 38% vs market 33.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.56
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.9
X/1
16%
3.99
X/2
11%
8.07
X/X
15%
4.09
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
10%
6.83
2/X
6%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-7.6pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.7pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
58%
+5.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
42%
-5.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.9pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +7%
1.35/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.29
-21% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 69%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
23.2 Crosses 19.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Las Palmas
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.26 xG 1.56
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
275 Passes 480
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
18.08.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
20.01.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-1 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
09.01.2018 Valencia Valencia 4-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İSPK
03.01.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İSPK
18.08.2017 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
2-3
AWAY Las Palmas
1.65 xG 1.24
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 2
319 Passes 401
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
40 Box Touches 14
35 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 9
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Las Palmas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Palmas squeezed past Valencia 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Valencia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valencia had 47% of the ball to Las Palmas's 53%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.65 to 1.24 — on chances, Valencia could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valencia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Valencia and 0.83 for Las Palmas.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Las Palmas?

Valencia 2-3 Las Palmas in the Spain - Primera Liga on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Las Palmas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Valencia 42%, draw 31%, Las Palmas 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Valencia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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