San Lorenzo 1-0 Barracas Central — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 21 Oct 2024

📅21/10/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
56%
1.48
Over
44%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.4
No Pick
61%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.16
2-3
38%
1.81
4-5
19%
5.8
6+
10%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.34
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.7
X/1
18%
3.66
X/2
8%
9.78
X/X
11%
3.7
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
10%
9.13
2/X
7%
17.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
50%
Home Win
54%
-3.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
64%
-7.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
36%
+7.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
38%
+2.0pp
61%
BTTS No
62%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Lorenzo The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Barracas Central The Market 21%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.49/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.34
-22% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 72%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
25.7 Crosses 16.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Lorenzo
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Barracas Central
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.81 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
274 Passes 218
70% Pass Accuracy 64%
25 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.05.2023 Barracas Central Barracas Central 1-0 HT 1-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
03.07.2022 Barracas Central Barracas Central 2-1 HT 2-1 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Lorenzo
1-0
AWAY Barracas Central
0.49 xG 0.29
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 3
232 Passes 150
76% Pass Accuracy 58%
16 Box Touches 9
17 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH San Lorenzo vs Barracas Central
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Lorenzo nicked a narrow win over Barracas Central 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had San Lorenzo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, San Lorenzo had 57% of the ball to Barracas Central's 43%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.49 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Barracas Central led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for San Lorenzo and 1.50 for Barracas Central.

What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Barracas Central?

San Lorenzo 1-0 Barracas Central in the Argentina - Premier League on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Barracas Central?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Lorenzo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 50%, draw 25%, Barracas Central 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Lorenzo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (San Lorenzo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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