Penafiel 2-3 Lusitania — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 21 Oct 2024

Penafiel
2-3 HT 1-2
Lusitania
📅21/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2024/2025

Penafiel vs Lusitania Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
61%
1.33
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.07
Over
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
37%
4-5
26%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Penafiel win — 61% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
62%
Home Win
70%
-8.9pp
18%
Draw
19%
-1.0pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+9.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.7pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penafiel v Lusitania — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel The Market 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania The Market 14%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+10% / -70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
531 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
6.0 Yellow Cards –

Penafiel 2-3 Lusitania — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
2-3
AWAY Lusitania
47% Ball Possession 53%
20 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 10
7 Corners 9
5 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Lusitania
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania edged past Penafiel 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Penafiel carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Penafiel had 47% of the ball to Lusitania's 53%, shots finished 20-16.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Lusitania?

Penafiel 2-3 Lusitania in the Portugal - Cup on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Lusitania?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 62%, draw 18%, Lusitania 21%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Penafiel), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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