Hoffenheim II 4-1 MSV Duisburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 21 Nov 2025

Hoffenheim II
4-1 HT 4-0
MSV Duisburg
📅21/11/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2025/2026

Hoffenheim II vs MSV Duisburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
39%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.05
6+ Goals
10%
9.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.25
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
13%
5.46
X/2
13%
6.4
X/X
9%
5.29
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
17%
4.15
2/X
6%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.9pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.0pp
39%
Away Win
33%
+5.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim II v MSV Duisburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.99/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.13
+29% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
10.2 Crosses 19.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Hoffenheim II 4-1 MSV Duisburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim II
4-1
AWAY MSV Duisburg
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
480 Passes 322
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim II vs MSV Duisburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim II cruised past MSV Duisburg 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 21% / 39%) promised a tight game; Hoffenheim II found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Hoffenheim II had 57% of the ball to MSV Duisburg's 43%, shots finished 16-9.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim II vs MSV Duisburg?

Hoffenheim II 4-1 MSV Duisburg in the Germany - 3rd Division on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim II vs MSV Duisburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim II 40%, draw 21%, MSV Duisburg 39%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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