Lusitania 1-1 Peniche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — PORUŞ, 21 Dec 2025

📅21/12/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
17%
3.28
Away
36%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.78
Over 2.5
54%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.91
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
27%
3.72
6+ Goals
6%
16.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.2pp
17%
Draw
27%
-9.4pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+9.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Peniche EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
438 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania
1-1
AWAY Peniche
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 11
POST-MATCH Lusitania vs Peniche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania and Peniche couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lusitania at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lusitania had 49% of the ball to Peniche's 51%, shots finished 8-19.

What was the final score of Lusitania vs Peniche?

Lusitania 1-1 Peniche in the PORUŞ on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania vs Peniche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lusitania 47%, draw 17%, Peniche 36%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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