Chelmsford City vs Welling United Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chelmsford City v Welling United — Team-Based Signals
Chelmsford City vs Welling United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-0
Chelmsford City
İCON
0-1
HT 0-0
Welling United
İCON
1-2
HT 0-0
Chelmsford City
İCON
1-0
HT 1-0
Chelmsford City
İCON
0-0
HT 0-0
Welling United
İCON
Chelmsford City 1-0 Welling United — Actual Match Statistics
Chelmsford City edged past Welling United 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chelmsford City as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Chelmsford City had 57% of the ball to Welling United's 43%, shots finished 12-13.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Chelmsford City and 0.80 for Welling United.
What was the final score of Chelmsford City vs Welling United?
Chelmsford City 1-0 Welling United in the England - Conference on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chelmsford City vs Welling United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Chelmsford City 50%, draw 26%, Welling United 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelmsford City), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.