Napoli 0-1 Inter — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Super Cup, 22 Jan 2024

Napoli
0-1 HT 0-0
Inter
📅22/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
47%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.5
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
16%
3.44
6+ Goals
7%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 33% vs market 23.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.13
1/2
10%
23.0
1/X
5%
16.3
X/1
12%
10.25
X/2
13%
3.79
X/X
18%
5.27
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
24%
2.05
2/X
4%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
19%
+6.4pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.7pp
47%
Away Win
57%
-10.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.2pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter EU Bookmakers 61%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Inter
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.05 xG 1.36
59% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
526 Passes 343
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-3 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
21.05.2023 Napoli Napoli 3-1 HT 0-0 Inter Inter İTA
04.01.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
12.02.2022 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-0 Inter Inter İTA
21.11.2021 Inter Inter 3-2 HT 2-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
18.04.2021 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-0 Inter Inter İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
0-1
AWAY Inter
0.21 xG 2.22
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 22
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 8
252 Passes 539
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
8 Box Touches 33
6 Crosses 36
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Inter
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter nicked a narrow win over Napoli 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Inter as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Napoli had 35% of the ball to Inter's 65%, shots finished 6-22, expected goals 0.21 to 2.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Inter's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Napoli and 1.67 for Inter.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Inter?

Napoli 0-1 Inter in the Italy - Super Cup on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Inter?

Before kick-off our model rated an Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Napoli 26%, draw 27%, Inter 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Inter) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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