Avai 3-2 Nação — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Catarinense 1, 22 Jan 2024

Avai
3-2 HT 2-1
Nação
📅22/01/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.87
Draw
20%
3.35
Away
43%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
Over 2.5
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
No
60%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
22%
+15.1pp
20%
Draw
26%
-6.2pp
43%
Away Win
52%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avai EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Nação EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
255 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avai
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Nação
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
13.09.2023 Nação Nação 1-1 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BRSCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avai
3-2
AWAY Nação
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Avai vs Nação
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avai edged past Nação 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Nação at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avai had 54% of the ball to Nação's 46%, shots finished 15-16.

What was the final score of Avai vs Nação?

Avai 3-2 Nação in the Brazil - Catarinense 1 on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avai vs Nação?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nação win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Avai 37%, draw 20%, Nação 43%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nação) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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