Beşiktaş 4-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 22 Jan 2025

📅22/01/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.91
Over
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.37
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
22%
3.31
6+
12%
12.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.29
1/2
8%
24.3
1/X
10%
13.55
X/1
13%
7.31
X/2
13%
4.81
X/X
10%
4.8
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.77
2/X
5%
12.75
Value flag · 1/X at 13.55 — our 10% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
37%
Home Win
28%
+8.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
37%
Away Win
45%
-8.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beşiktaş The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao The Market 49%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
0.92/2.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.49
-24% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -21%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 83%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
25.9 Crosses 27.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beşiktaş
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
04.11.2004 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 3-1 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beşiktaş
4-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
2.78 xG 1.04
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
353 Passes 387
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 16
6 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Beşiktaş vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beşiktaş ran out comfortable winners over Athletic Bilbao 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Beşiktaş made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Beşiktaş had 47% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 53%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 2.78 to 1.04.

What was the final score of Beşiktaş vs Athletic Bilbao?

Beşiktaş 4-1 Athletic Bilbao in the UEFA Europa League on 22/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beşiktaş vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beşiktaş win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Beşiktaş 37%, draw 26%, Athletic Bilbao 37%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →