Macarthur 2-3 Central Coast Mariners — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Cup, 22 Feb 2024

Macarthur
2-3 HT 0-0
Central Coast Mariners
📅22/02/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
AFC Cup – 2023/2024

Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.21
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
15%
6.39
X/2
12%
5.13
X/X
12%
5.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
29.5
2/2
21%
3.1
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.1pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Central Coast Mariners — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.36 xG 2.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 6
294 Passes 336
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 36
23 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-2 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
11.03.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 4-1 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
13.01.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 0-2 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
13.11.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-3 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
19.03.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 4-2 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
10.02.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 3-3 HT 1-2 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Macarthur 2-3 Central Coast Mariners — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
2-3
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
0.97 xG 2.38
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 26
7 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 16
374 Passes 609
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 47
21 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners nicked a narrow win over Macarthur 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Central Coast Mariners made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Macarthur had 40% of the ball to Central Coast Mariners's 60%, shots finished 12-26, expected goals 0.97 to 2.38 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Central Coast Mariners's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Macarthur and 2.67 for Central Coast Mariners.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners?

Macarthur 2-3 Central Coast Mariners in the AFC Cup on 22/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners?

Before kick-off our model rated an Central Coast Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 37%, draw 24%, Central Coast Mariners 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Central Coast Mariners), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →