22/02/2024
·
00:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
2-1
Heredia vs Peten Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
Over
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
62%
No
38%
Total Goals
0-1
14%
2-3
55%
4-5
23%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
14%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 62% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
49%
Home Win
70%
34%
Draw
18%
17%
Away Win
12%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Heredia v Peten — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Heredia
The Market 75%
Head to Head
AWAY
Peten
The Market 15%
-28% /
-28%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+29% /
+29%
1.00/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
4.00/4.00
-38%
/
-17%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+150%
/
-56%
64%
Ball Possession
36%
18
Total Shots
9
8
Shots on Target
4
7
Corners
3
355 · 81%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
156 · 66%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Heredia vs Peten
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Heredia squeezed past Peten 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Heredia as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (62%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Heredia vs Peten?
Heredia 1-0 Peten in the Guatemela - Premier League Apertura on 22/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Heredia vs Peten?
Before kick-off our model rated a Heredia win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Heredia 49%, draw 34%, Peten 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heredia) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Heredia)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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GUAP
More Guatemela - Premier League Apertura
22 Feb 2024