Freiburg (K) 2-4 Hoffenheim (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Women's Bundesliga, 22 Mar 2024

📅22/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.46
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
54%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
37%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
26%
-2.0pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
54%
Away Win
50%
+4.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.6pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg (K) EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim (K) EU Bookmakers 54%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+100% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
289 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg (K)
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Hoffenheim (K)
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 5
04.11.2023 Hoffenheim (K) Hoffenheim (K) 2-3 HT 0-1 Freiburg (K) Freiburg (K) ALKB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg (K)
2-4
AWAY Hoffenheim (K)
2.12 xG 2.43
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
378 Passes 317
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Freiburg (K) vs Hoffenheim (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim (K) beat Freiburg (K) 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hoffenheim (K) as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Freiburg (K) had 54% of the ball to Hoffenheim (K)'s 46%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 2.12 to 2.43.

What was the final score of Freiburg (K) vs Hoffenheim (K)?

Freiburg (K) 2-4 Hoffenheim (K) in the Germany - Women's Bundesliga on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg (K) vs Hoffenheim (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hoffenheim (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Freiburg (K) 24%, draw 22%, Hoffenheim (K) 54%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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