Brasiliense 1-3 Capital Brasilia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Brasiliense, 22 Mar 2024

📅22/03/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 4-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.16
Draw
21%
7.78
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
34%
Over Pick
66%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Total Goals
0-1
16%
2-3
35%
4-5
35%
6+
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
65%
Home Win
82%
-17.8pp
21%
Draw
10%
+11.0pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brasiliense The Market 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Capital Brasilia The Market 9%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+53% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
532 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brasiliense
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Capital Brasilia
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
02.04.2023 Brasiliense Brasiliense 1-0 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia BRBR
26.03.2023 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 0-2 HT 0-1 Brasiliense Brasiliense BRBR
08.02.2023 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 0-0 HT 0-0 Brasiliense Brasiliense BRBR
19.02.2022 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 0-0 HT 0-0 Brasiliense Brasiliense BRBR
21.04.2021 Brasiliense Brasiliense 1-0 HT 0-0 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia BRBR
POST-MATCH Brasiliense vs Capital Brasilia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Capital Brasilia got the better of Brasiliense 3-1 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Brasiliense carried 65% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Brasiliense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Brasiliense and 0.00 for Capital Brasilia.

What was the final score of Brasiliense vs Capital Brasilia?

Brasiliense 1-3 Capital Brasilia in the Brazil - Brasiliense on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brasiliense vs Capital Brasilia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brasiliense win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Brasiliense 65%, draw 21%, Capital Brasilia 14%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brasiliense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brasiliense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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