Celaya 1-2 Monarcas Morelia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 22 Mar 2024

Celaya
1-2 HT 1-0
Monarcas Morelia
📅22/03/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2023/2024

Celaya vs Monarcas Morelia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.8
Over 2.5
56%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-3.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.2pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
52%
-7.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
48%
+7.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celaya v Monarcas Morelia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.67/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.31
-8% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
329 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Celaya vs Monarcas Morelia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Monarcas Morelia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
The Meetings
07.08.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
15.05.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-3 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
12.05.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 1-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
03.04.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 3-2 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
08.09.2022 Celaya Celaya 2-0 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
09.03.2022 Celaya Celaya 2-2 HT 1-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs Monarcas Morelia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia nicked a narrow win over Celaya 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Celaya carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Celaya and 1.67 for Monarcas Morelia.

What was the final score of Celaya vs Monarcas Morelia?

Celaya 1-2 Monarcas Morelia in the Mexico - Primera A on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs Monarcas Morelia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Celaya 55%, draw 22%, Monarcas Morelia 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Celaya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ Over 2.5
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