Pogon Siedlce 1-0 Olimpia Elblag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 22 Mar 2024

📅22/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
31%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 29% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
11%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
31%
Away Win
23%
+8.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Olimpia Elblag EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.60/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.29
-5% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +19%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Siedlce
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Olimpia Elblag
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
20.09.2023 Olimpia Elblag Olimpia Elblag 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
09.08.2023 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-1 HT 1-0 Olimpia Elblag Olimpia Elblag POLK
04.03.2023 Olimpia Elblag Olimpia Elblag 1-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
06.08.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 0-1 HT 0-0 Olimpia Elblag Olimpia Elblag POL2
26.02.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-1 HT 0-1 Olimpia Elblag Olimpia Elblag POL2
18.08.2021 Olimpia Elblag Olimpia Elblag 2-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Siedlce
1-0
AWAY Olimpia Elblag
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pogon Siedlce vs Olimpia Elblag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Siedlce squeezed past Olimpia Elblag 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Siedlce as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pogon Siedlce had 53% of the ball to Olimpia Elblag's 47%, shots finished 17-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olimpia Elblag led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Pogon Siedlce and 1.17 for Olimpia Elblag.

What was the final score of Pogon Siedlce vs Olimpia Elblag?

Pogon Siedlce 1-0 Olimpia Elblag in the Poland - 2nd Division on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Siedlce vs Olimpia Elblag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Siedlce win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Pogon Siedlce 44%, draw 26%, Olimpia Elblag 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Siedlce), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Siedlce) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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