Middlesbrough 3-4 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 22 Apr 2024

Middlesbrough
3-4 HT 2-3
Leeds United
📅22/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Middlesbrough vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
49%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.59
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
12%
8.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.59 — our 27% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.23
1/2
9%
21.15
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
8%
8.83
X/2
15%
4.19
X/X
6%
5.77
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.25
2/X
9%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+5.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
50%
Away Win
56%
-6.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Middlesbrough v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 61%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -4%
1.15/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/0.78
-49% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +31%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
217 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 81%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
23.0 Crosses 18.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

Middlesbrough vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Leeds United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.04 xG 1.68
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
216 Passes 394
68% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 3-2 HT 3-2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
26.02.2020 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
30.11.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 4-0 HT 2-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
09.02.2019 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
31.08.2018 Leeds United Leeds United 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
02.03.2018 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-0 HT 2-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL

Middlesbrough 3-4 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
3-4
AWAY Leeds United
1.13 xG 2.47
67% Ball Possession 33%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 4
551 Passes 237
91% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 18
34 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United squeezed past Middlesbrough 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 67% of the ball to Leeds United's 33%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.13 to 2.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leeds United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.50 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Leeds United?

Middlesbrough 3-4 Leeds United in the England - Championship on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 27%, draw 24%, Leeds United 50%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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