Elfsborg 1-2 Kalmar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 22 Apr 2024

Elfsborg
1-2 HT 0-1
Kalmar
📅22/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

Elfsborg vs Kalmar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.01
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.5
X/1
12%
3.82
X/2
9%
10.9
X/X
11%
5.35
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
11%
8.58
2/X
5%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.4pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.2pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+8.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Elfsborg v Kalmar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Kalmar EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.92/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.66
+18% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -22%
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 81%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
21.3 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

Elfsborg vs Kalmar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elfsborg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kalmar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.71 xG 1.04
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
331 Passes 494
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 0-3 HT 0-3 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
09.07.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 0-4 HT 0-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
09.10.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 0-2 HT 0-2 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
24.07.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 1-0 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
29.08.2021 Kalmar Kalmar 0-3 HT 0-2 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
08.05.2021 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-2 HT 1-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ

Elfsborg 1-2 Kalmar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
1-2
AWAY Kalmar
1.61 xG 0.42
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
318 Passes 518
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs Kalmar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalmar nicked a narrow win over Elfsborg 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Elfsborg at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Elfsborg had 41% of the ball to Kalmar's 59%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.61 to 0.42 — the balance of chances actually favoured Elfsborg.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kalmar led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Elfsborg and 1.33 for Kalmar.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs Kalmar?

Elfsborg 1-2 Kalmar in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs Kalmar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 52%, draw 21%, Kalmar 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Elfsborg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✓ Over 2.5
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