Valmiera / BSS 0-1 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 22 Apr 2024

Valmiera / BSS
0-1 HT 0-1
BFC Daugavpils
📅22/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Latvia - Virsliga – 2024

Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
61%
-12.0pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valmiera / BSS v BFC Daugavpils — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 19%
-12% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -7%
1.92/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.65
-1% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / +27%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
402 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
30.1 Crosses 16.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valmiera / BSS
2W-3D-1L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.45 xG 0.69
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
349 Passes 138
76% Pass Accuracy 57%
27 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
22.07.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
22.05.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 1-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
11.04.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
02.10.2022 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 1-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
16.07.2022 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 5-1 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET

Valmiera / BSS 0-1 BFC Daugavpils — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valmiera / BSS
0-1
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.53 xG 1.31
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 8
448 Passes 181
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
29 Box Touches 14
42 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils squeezed past Valmiera / BSS 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Valmiera / BSS at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Valmiera / BSS had 67% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 33%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.53 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valmiera / BSS had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Valmiera / BSS and 0.67 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils?

Valmiera / BSS 0-1 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Valmiera / BSS 49%, draw 28%, BFC Daugavpils 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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