Farense 1-3 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 22 Apr 2024

Farense
1-3 HT 1-2
Benfica
📅22/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Farense vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
55%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
5.55
2-3 Goals
49%
2.02
4-5 Goals
19%
2.64
6+ Goals
8%
6.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.55 — our 24% vs market 13.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
11.4
1/2
7%
20.1
1/X
4%
19.25
X/1
8%
16.1
X/2
18%
3.7
X/X
11%
7.86
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.59
2/X
10%
19.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
13%
+7.3pp
24%
Draw
17%
+7.4pp
55%
Away Win
70%
-14.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+14.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-14.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.8pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 75%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
2.48/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.89
+71% / +94% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +19%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
267 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 83%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.8
20.1 Crosses 20.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Farense vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Benfica
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.32 xG 3.07
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 21
6 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
198 Passes 408
65% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 44
16 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.12.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
21.02.2021 Farense Farense 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
04.10.2020 Benfica Benfica 3-2 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR
18.03.2002 Benfica Benfica 5-0 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR
26.10.2001 Farense Farense 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
13.04.2001 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 1-2 Benfica Benfica POR

Farense 1-3 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-3
AWAY Benfica
0.60 xG 1.84
37% Ball Possession 63%
14 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
287 Passes 575
77% Pass Accuracy 91%
18 Box Touches 46
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Farense vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica saw off Farense 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Farense had 37% of the ball to Benfica's 63%, shots finished 14-20, expected goals 0.60 to 1.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Farense and 2.17 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Farense vs Benfica?

Farense 1-3 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Farense 21%, draw 24%, Benfica 55%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ BTTS No
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