Mladost Lucani 3-1 Napredak Krusevac — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 22 Apr 2024

📅22/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
59%
-11.4pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+7.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mladost Lucani EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Napredak Krusevac EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.41/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.43
-21% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
319 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
31.8 Crosses 14.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mladost Lucani
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Napredak Krusevac
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 1.12
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
234 Passes 267
65% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.12.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 1-2 HT 0-1 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
20.08.2023 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 0-1 HT 0-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
26.04.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 0-1 HT 0-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
04.04.2023 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 0-0 HT 0-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
08.10.2022 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 3-1 HT 1-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
15.12.2021 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 3-2 HT 2-2 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mladost Lucani
3-1
AWAY Napredak Krusevac
2.33 xG 2.01
48% Ball Possession 52%
23 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
330 Passes 376
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
43 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mladost Lucani vs Napredak Krusevac
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mladost Lucani got the better of Napredak Krusevac 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mladost Lucani as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mladost Lucani had 48% of the ball to Napredak Krusevac's 52%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 2.33 to 2.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mladost Lucani had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mladost Lucani and 1.00 for Napredak Krusevac.

What was the final score of Mladost Lucani vs Napredak Krusevac?

Mladost Lucani 3-1 Napredak Krusevac in the Serbia - Super League on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mladost Lucani vs Napredak Krusevac?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mladost Lucani win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mladost Lucani 48%, draw 27%, Napredak Krusevac 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mladost Lucani) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mladost Lucani) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
SIRP More Serbia - Super League
22 Apr 2024
17:00 IMT Novi Beograd vs Zeleznicar Pancevo Analysis →